The Wellingtonista

Random stuff about Wellington since 2005

The Mighty Booth

by Tom on November 13, 2008 in Uncategorized

After every election there are geographical analyses of voting patterns, inevitably followed by suggestions that certain regions should secede and form their own country. Such analyses are often at electorate level, but there’s a lot of fine detail below that, and a cell of socialist insurgents might live just around the corner from an enclave of conservative curmudgeons. So I made the following map of Wellington voting tendencies at a booth-by-booth level.

Welllington detailed voting patterns

For analysis, explanations, notes on methodology and a whizzy interactive Google Maps mashup of the whole region, read the full story.

Each blob represents a polling place, and the colour represents the proportion that voted for either left wing (shades of red) or right wing (shades of blue) parties. The full Google Map allows you to zoom in and see the full detail, but you should be aware of a few limitations. First, the blobs are displaced slightly to the north of the actual location, though it gets more accurate as you zoom in (this is due to a "feature" of the Google My Maps custom icons, which offsets the images). Secondly, some of the locations are fairly approximate (since I had to manually place them on the map, and not all had full addresses), though given that voters don’t always vote in their immediate neighbourhood that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Finally, My Maps only allows a certain number of markers on a single map, so the booths in the far north (e.g. Kapiti) and northeast (e.g. Upper Hutt) of the region are on a separate page.

I downloaded the detailed data from the offical Elections website, then aggregated the votes by polling place. I only looked at party votes in general electorates, and to produce a simple "left-right index" I added the votes up into two blocs, based upon pre-election suggestions of possible coalitions:

Blue bloc = National + Act + United Future
Red bloc = Labour + Green + Progressive

I decided to omit NZF and the Maori Party, mostly because they were not explicitly going to coalesce with the main parties, and all the other minor parties because they didn’t reach the threshold. Then the formula for the percentage calculation was:

Leftiness = Red / (Red + Blue)

In other words, of those voting for the two main likely coalitions, what percentage voted for centre left rather than centre right?

It certainly seems that the Wellington CBD, Aro Valley and inner suburbs voted left, but it’s not all about hippies and the trendy urban liberal elite. The traditional Labour heartland of working class, Maori and immigrant neighbourhoods also stayed staunch, with several booths in Cannons Creek voting for the left by over 90%. The affluent neighbourhoods (Oriental Bay, Khandallah and Seatoun) kept to their blue-blood roots, but there’s also plenty of blue in the Hutt Valley and parts of Tawa: is that the "Joe the Plumber" vote? The only booth to vote more than 75% for the right was in Whitby.

So, what happened at your polling booth?

Tom Beard

Tom Beard lives in a tasteful neo-Tuscan mansion in Churton Park. He is a teetotaller, and his hobbies include golf, gardening and watching V8 supercars. He owns three SUVs, but his favourite vehicle is the Hummer with the “I ♥ Peter Dunne” bumper sticker, which he enjoys driving to church.

{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }

The Masked Barfly November 18, 2008 at 1:15 pm

Heaven forbid that the people drawn to the public service are people who actualy want to serve the public by voting for the greater good!

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Paul Williams November 20, 2008 at 12:50 pm

I take some satisfaction in correlating my own leafletting with the concentration of red-coloured booths. Perhaps though I should have been working the blue more…?

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stephenjudd November 17, 2008 at 5:06 pm
the sprout November 19, 2008 at 9:56 am

nice work Tom.

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noizyboy November 18, 2008 at 9:38 am

Ha! According to various right-wingers ‘educated’ = ‘indoctrinated’. 

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Ben November 17, 2008 at 9:40 pm

I found this very interesting. Wellington is the most “red” city in the country and the most educated. I think there is a link.

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Seamonkey Madness November 13, 2008 at 7:35 pm

Hmmm – I wonder why Cannons Creek voted for Labour?

Was it the threats from Labour that National would cut all their penifits?

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stephen clover November 14, 2008 at 3:09 pm

Hmmm – I wonder why Cannons Creek WOULDN’T vote for Labour.  Can you enlighten?

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RL November 14, 2008 at 3:09 am

Erm, my mother lives in Cannon’s Creek and she’s on the benefit, and… she voted National, so… how about you keep your assumptions about people’s behaviour to yourself, and while you’re at it why don’t you confine your racial stereotyping (i.e the heavily Pacific area of Cannon’s Creek is all on “penifits”) to when it’s more appropriate, say like, never?

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Tom November 13, 2008 at 9:24 pm

Thanks, but it was enough of a chore locating a few hundred polling places! Maybe if someone out there has access to a geocoder? I’d also recommend loading all the spreadsheets into a geodatabase, which I should have done really, but it was a bit of a learning exercise for me with Google’s My Maps.

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Che Tibby November 13, 2008 at 8:58 pm

man, top work tom. you should think seriously about putting the whole country up.

mr. brown would doubtless give the wellingtonista some linky love.

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becs027 November 13, 2008 at 8:56 pm

I love this, thanks so much for putting it together.

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ange November 13, 2008 at 4:45 pm

Great work Tom, I really liked reading this map and looking at the colours of Wellington.

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deepred November 13, 2008 at 10:17 pm

Once again, thanks for the enlightenment of geo-data.

“mr. brown would doubtless give the wellingtonista some linky love.”

Linkage to Public Address System here.

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Robyn November 13, 2008 at 10:34 pm

Very impressive work, Tom!

It appears my booth is a muddy purple, which is my outlook on life in general.

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kowhai November 13, 2008 at 6:07 pm

Now I just want to see some Maori mapping done…

</fluttering eyelashes at the interwebs>

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Xavier November 14, 2008 at 12:06 pm

Hi tom, would be very interested in having a look at this data with a program like Arc using density kernels, could provide some very useful information…..have you thought about doing it that way? could be an interesting project…

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John Ansell November 14, 2008 at 9:37 am

Brilliant work, Tom. Great communication..

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Tom November 14, 2008 at 10:42 am

She’d be one of the 5-6% who voted National in Cannons Creek. It seems that many of the people there who might have been put off by Labour’s so-called "social engineering" voted for the Kiwi Party, Family Party or NZ Pacific rather than National, since they polled about 4-5% between them.

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